Are we on the decline?

In the year 2000, the world’s population exceeded almost 6 billion. Jump 20 years and we are at approximately 7.7 billion. Fast forward another 80 years and based on a population forecast by the Global Burden of Disease Study, taking fertility, migration and mortality rates into consideration, we are expected to have a world population of 6.8 billion. That’s a significant decline.

The findings from the study:

By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to to have a total fertility rate lower than the replacement level (TFR <2.1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 - 2050; China’s population was forecasted to decline by 48%.

“The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:

She was to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and she was to survive from birth to the end of her reproductive life”

The findings of the study suggest that ‘continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.’ Essentially if the total fertility rate is lower than the replacement level needed to sustain the population, we will find ourselves feeling the economic, social, environmental and geopolitical consequences.

What can we do? We need to work on improving fertility education globally and enhancing female reproductive health!

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